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Reflecting on the new vehicle sales statistics, naamsa | The Automotive Business Council said that the positive start to the last quarter with the highest sales month of the year, including the highest passenger car sales month since October 2019, was encouraging for the medium-term new vehicle market outlook.
Mikel Mabasa, naamsa CEO, said that aggregate domestic new vehicle sales in October 2024, at 47,942 units, reflected an increase of 2,506 units, or a gain of 5,5%, from the 45,418 vehicles sold in October 2023. Export sales decreased by 17,324 units, or 42,6%, to 23,342 units in October 2024 compared to the 40,666 vehicles exported in October 2023.
Overall, out of the total reported industry sales of 47,924 vehicles, an estimated 38,520 units, or 80,4%, represented dealer sales, an estimated 14,8% represented sales to the vehicle rental industry, 2,6% to industry corporate fleets, and 2,2% to government.
“The October 2024 new passenger car market at 34,228 units had registered an increase of 4,331 cars, or a gain of 14,5%, compared to the 29,897 new cars sold in October 2023. Car rental sales accounted for a sound 19,8% of new passenger vehicle sales during the month,” Mabasa said.
Domestic sales of new light commercial vehicles, bakkies and mini-buses at 10,791 units during October 2024 had recorded a decrease of 1,576 units, or a loss of 12,7%, from the 12,367 light commercial vehicles sold during October 2023.
Sales for medium and heavy truck segments of the industry reflected a weak performance in October 2024 and, at 718 units and 2,187 units, respectively, recorded a decrease of 81 units, or 10,1% from the 799 units sold in October 2023 in the case of medium commercial vehicles, and, in the case of heavy trucks and buses a decrease of 168 vehicles, or 7,1%, compared to the 2,355 units sold in the corresponding month last year.
The October 2024 export sales at 23,342 units reflected a decrease of 17,324 vehicles, or a loss of 42,6%, compared to the high-based 40,666 vehicles exported in October 2023. For the first 10 months of the year, vehicle exports were now 23,1% below the corresponding period 2023.
Mabasa said that the stronger performance in the new vehicle market in October 2024, and in particular the volume passenger car segment reflecting its highest monthly growth over the past five years, bodes well for signs of the new vehicle market slowly turning. Although strongly supported by seasonal sales to the vehicle rental industry, passenger car sales represent a key indicator of consumer sentiment.
Positive indicators of further potential growth include an easing in annual consumer inflation for a fourth consecutive month to 3,8% in September, the lowest level since March 2021, when the rate was 3,2%. In addition, petrol prices were at the lowest point in nearly three years, creating some breathing space for households.
“Consumers and businesses could also look forward to the start of an interest-cutting cycle over the next 18 months, which cumulatively would begin to positively impact some level of relief in expensive debt and provide a stimulus to market sentiment. Although the immediate effects of these positive signs were still relatively small, the cumulative impact and momentum going forward would hopefully translate into stronger new vehicle sales in the medium to long term,” Mabasa said.
The downward slide in vehicle exports continued during the month in line with declining exports to Europe as the domestic automotive industry’s top export region, accounting for three out of every four vehicle exports. Growth in the European Union stood at 0,3% after three quarters of 2024, with Germany projected to end 2024 with a 0,2% contraction.
A model change by a major local OEM, stricter emissions regulations in the region as well as an influx of cheaper electric vehicles from China all impacted vehicle exports to the region in 2024. An easing of monetary policy in key export markets could see the vehicle export momentum turn positive again over the medium term.
Mabasa said that the third iteration of the annual edition of naamsa’s SA Auto Week was hosted recently at the Cape Town International Convention Centre from 15 to 18 October 2024 with the theme: “Re-imagining the Future, TOGETHER: Celebrating Automotive Heritage, Passion, Resilience, and Ingenuity”. Celebrating 100 years of automotive manufacturing, South Africa not only honoured its rich heritage but also aligned itself with these global leaders, showcasing its own contributions to innovation, quality, and industry growth. naamsa wishes to thank all its members, associate members, partners, sponsors, the media and industry friends for investing your time in us during the SA Auto Week 2024.
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