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South Africa’s new vehicle sales performance in September 2025 continued to unfold strongly against a backdrop of easing inflation, firm but restrictive monetary policy, modest economic growth momentum and an ongoing expansion of imported models and brands.
Aggregate new vehicle sales increased to 54,700 units in September 2025, its highest monthly level recorded since September 2015, up 10,700 units, or 24,3%, from the 44,000 units sold in September 2024.
Overall, out of the total reported industry sales of 54,700 vehicles, an estimated 43,817 units, or 80,1%, represented dealer sales, an estimated 15,2% represented sales to the vehicle rental industry, 2,7% to industry corporate fleets, and 2,0% to government sales.
The September 2025 new passenger car market at 38,603 units, its highest level since October 2014, registered an increase of 8,436 cars, or a gain of 28,0%, compared to the 30,167 new cars sold in September 2024. Car rental sales accounted for a substantial 20,1% of new passenger vehicle sales during the month.
Domestic sales of new light commercial vehicles, bakkies and minibuses at 13,078 units during September 2025 had recorded an increase of 2,154 units, or a gain of 19,7%, from the 10,924 light commercial vehicles sold during September 2024.
Sales for medium and heavy truck segments of the industry reflected a mixed performance in September 2025 and at 767 units and 2,252 units, respectively, recorded a decrease of 15 units, or 1,9% from the 782 units sold in September 2024 in the case of medium commercial vehicles, and, in the case of heavy trucks and buses an increase of 125 vehicles, or 5,9%, compared to the 2,127 units sold in the corresponding month last year.
The broader economy surprised on the upside in the second quarter, with GDP expanding by 0.8% q/q and household spending showing resilience. Yet the medium-term growth outlook remains muted. Fitch Ratings’ decision to affirm the sovereign credit rating at BB- with a stable outlook underscores expectations of GDP growth averaging just 1.2% through 2027, as structural constraints continue to weigh on investment and job creation. For the vehicle market, this points to a demand base that is steady but limited by low potential growth.
Encouragingly for households, consumer inflation slowed to 3.3% y/y in August, below expectations. Lower food, fuel, and transport costs have eased pressure on disposable incomes, while subdued vehicle price inflation — supported by a stronger rand and heightened competition — has helped sustain affordability in certain segments.
This disinflationary trend offered some relief for car buyers, particularly in the small-car and entry-level categories, where cost sensitivity is highest. Despite inflation undershooting expectations, the South African Reserve Bank [SARB] held the repo rate at 7.00% at its September meeting.
By prioritising inflation expectations at the lower end of the 3–6% range, the SARB has maintained restrictive borrowing costs. While new vehicle purchases have benefited from the 125 basis points of cuts implemented so far, further easing would be particularly beneficial for households considering higher-value or discretionary vehicle purchases.
Consumer confidence weakened in the third quarter, with the sharpest decline among middle-income households, whose sentiment fell due to weak job creation and rising food costs. Encouragingly, the index for durable goods purchases edged slightly higher, suggesting that some households remain willing to consider big-ticket items where financing is accessible.
On the external front, the trade balance remained in surplus at R20.3 billion in July, supported by strong commodity and agricultural exports. This has helped stabilise the rand and contain imported inflation, indirectly benefiting the auto sector through lower costs of imported components and competitive vehicle pricing. However, rising imports of petroleum products and shifting trade conditions, including US tariff barriers, continue to pose risks for the broader economic environment in which the automotive sector operates.
Vehicle export volumes for the month of September 2025 surprised on the upside and increased by 9,592 units, or 32,9% from the 29,180 units exported in September 2024 to 38,772 units exported in September 2025. For the year to date, vehicle exports were now 6,0% ahead of the same period in 2024, demonstrating industry resilience despite global supply chain disruptions and US automotive tariffs.
New vehicle sales are being released at the 2025 SA Auto Week, taking place in Gqeberha, Eastern Cape Province, from 01 – 03 October. This year’s gathering is especially momentous as naamsa celebrates its 90th anniversary in the province that continues to stand as the beating heart of South Africa’s automotive industry.
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